|Severe Warned Storm -Cape Canaveral, Hail in Some Locations Non-Severe, |
near Severe Wind Gusts Reported
Above Image superimposed (left) with a severe warned thunderstorm on Saturday.
AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND MOVING NE AT 15 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... MERRITT ISLAND..
.COCOA BEACH...CAPE CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL
TODAY: Another chance of isolated thunder (iso-thunder) over the SE portions of the state, mainly from near Titusville or Cape Canaveral south to near MIA or FLL (Fort Lauderdale) mostly nearer the east 1/2 of the state.
There are issues today with down draft CAPE once again which could limit to some degree large storms, but those same factors (if they get going) could make them popcorn severe. So far, most to all locations near and north of I-4 appear to be completely out of the picture today. The irony is that it is that location where the better wind fields are that would support severe storms, but those to work their way toward the Magical Central Dividing Line running from the Port of Canaveral toward North Tampa Bay. Timing is another issue as well, as outflows, if activity from further south manifest, could advect favorable 'storm air' toward the North Brevard Beaches with an intersect over "Badges Only" no-man's land Space Center. I sent a badge request in last year to gain access to those secure areas but I guess they didn't buy it.
Surface based instability is higher than latest GFS and NAM are showing per the Mesoscale Analysis Page, but lifted index is lacking toward The Beach Line but the trend has been to build that parameter north to MLB or Canaveral. Overall, it's another day of cat and mouse in wonder if , and,, or when the needed parameters will sync together after and during peak heating (number one), and number two, if the east coast sea breeze can get going north of Vero Beach. That is the key ingredient to get the pulse strong storms to activate, at least while they are over land.
Without the sea breeze north of Vero, the stronger storms if any appear will be limited toward Ft. Pierce around the Lake and Southward. In general though, believe the sea breeze will get going around 2pm if not sooner, so should see some showers begin to generate. The models were having problems even up to the latest runs as what appeared to be convective feedback from yesterday's and last nights departing anomaly (which activated storms along the east coast from the Cape and South) which could have thrown guidance out of whack. In general, the better chances of strong appear to be from near Sebastian Inlet and south at least as of this hour.
Hazards today near the storms would be lightning and wind gusts toward severe limits of 58 mph with hail the better chance toward Lake Okeechobee and South Florida in general from near Vero Beach south to West Palm and inland a way. Note: The GFS favors most of Brevard, but as of this hour that potential is yet to be seen.
MONDAY and BEYOND: Chance of thunder again mainly far South Central and South Florida nearer the east coast once again. Outside of Moan-day, a bit cooler and dry (normal for this time of May) at least into next weekend as it appears now. There is a very definite trend the continental U.S. is falling into so far the past 2-3 weeks, all part of the reason why this has been one of the lowest count tornado years in decades.
Interesting side bar is that the GFS is showing a tropical storm or weak hurricane to approach Florida near Memorial Day weekend but take heed, the GFS showed almost the exact same thing at this time of year, last year.
|Manatee Park Madness - Cape Canaveral, Florida|
TODAY: Difficult forecast as two scenarios are being depicted that could unfold. Depending on which one (if either) does, completely changes who will get what, where, and when.
|OPTION 1 |
Shows Mesoscale Analysis of a 700mb low though weak, over Central
Florida this morning partly responsible for morning rains. The Main Low
remains back over Louisiana. Trough connect the two lows.
That 'low' over Florida at 700mb is mainly only a manifestation, or part,
of the same Low over Louisiana
OPTION 1: Thunder storm trigger in SE Gulf Moves into SW Florida and advects toward Lake Okeechobee while slowly lifting north. Cloud cover is pretty bad today, so although temperatures aloft are colder today, not sure how much that will matter in regard to stronger storms being able to generate under far less than 'stellar' conditions than would be otherwise. The red in the image above shows a best guess at this early hour for where some stronger storms could occur. Under this scenario rain showers, though sparse, could occur about anywhere but more likely impact north and east toward Dead Central East Coast late in the day much like yesterday, only several hours sooner.
The image above 'notes' that the low over Louisiana is expected to open up and merge toward Arkansas while the energy associated with it could drop south in to the Gulf and then eject toward Florida on Friday. This is shown in the next image.
Otherwise, if this Option 1 pans out, there is a good chance of rain toward Tampa, Lakeland, Haines City to Lake Okeechobee with some isolated stronger activity, but the main mode of operation will be light to moderate rains.
The other option is that the faux 700mb low pictured in the other image hangs tight over the state. That combined with high pressure building south down the East coast of the U.S. could put the squeeze on the moisture and slosh it across main all areas north and near I-4 as shown in the purple and red. Any thunder would be elevated as instability is close to none in that area.
Further South though: If the low hangs tight the forecast for Tampa and Lakeland zones goes from good chance of rain and thunder to suddenly very little to none. On the other hand, the chance for thunder as shown above toward Central could increase due to circulation around ' said assuming low' which would change steering currents lat in the day to being from the SW-WSW (but slow) over Central Florida as instability could increase after and during peak heating. In this OPTION we'll also downplay the likelihood of any strong storms out there to the point they'd be isolated so that it's not worth mentioning. There is a chance someone today could end up with big rainfall totals in this scenario.
FRIDAY: Another Very Sticky forecast
FRIDAY: In this image is the new mid-level low in Arkansas with a pseudo warm front like feature composed of a wind shift line and vorticity streamers impacting East Central from early morning throughout the entire day. This means a lot of rain up and down the east coast particularly toward Brevard County. Also note the black "X"s. Those would be energy pockets from the old low over Louisiana moving east toward Florida. By early-mid afternoon both the east coast features at 850mb and those lobes of energy at a high atmospheric level from the west at 700mb shown over the Gulf could mish-mash over the state making for a slosh fest. Time will tell, but if so, could rain almost all day Friday or Saturday.
SATURDAY: Depending on timing , Saturday could again be a mostly rainy day for Central Florida and perhaps not so much South Florida.
SUNDAY: Latest guidance indicates the show might end as soon as Sunday now, with only a slight chance of light rain or a shower later in the day toward the east coast. Another weak impulse to pass over around Monday could generate clouds and some light right, but other than that we can close the chapter on this storm system's impact on Florida. Next will be the cooler air. Not 'cold', just cooler.