TODAY - SUNDAY: Gradual warming trend will be in place with cool mornings. On shore winds could result in some clouds closer toward the coast with warmer overnight lows at the immediate beaches south of The Cape beginning Sunday Morning. Clocks to be dialed forward one hour tonight; it will getting light outside 'later' according to the clock but also dark later for the same reason from tomorrow to October.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: These two days appear will be the warmest ones in the next week for the most part (at least so far). A 'short -wave' trough will be ejecting across the North Central Gulf toward Florida as winds locally become more predominantly SW . The coast might not see a sea breeze one or both days. Otherwise, highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs and maybe some mid 80Fs interior South Florida. With a wimpy sea breeze, the beaches will remain in the lower to mid 70Fs, but warmer south of Ft. Pierce where ocean temperatures are warmer due to the closer proximity of the warmer Gulf Stream waters.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Short-wave impulse extending to 20,000 ft. with a reflection there (at 500mb) with the trough perhaps slightly negatively tilted which is more favorable for strong storm activity, but jet stream winds will not be as strong as the other day. Regardless, some bulk and directional shear is noted to increase after midnight Tuesday night from West to East Sides mainly south of I-4 (at least as far as the GFS has shown for several model runs). This is the same disturbance that was mentioned a few posts ago, but which was also referenced in the last one as no longer showing up, but that it might show up in later model runs, and that it has done. Originally 'scheduled' for a Tuesday, it's now Wednesday and not nearly the threat as was first presented.
BEYOND: Only subtle ups and down with near normal temperatures and little to no chance of rains. The GFS is hinging at onshore winds making for some eastern side 'cloudy' days, at least mornings, but the GFS does have a tendency to over do such, but either way, no true weather impacts temperature, wind, or rain wise is foreseen for quite sometime outside of the "Wednesday Time Frame".
|IF THE ABOVE GRAPHIC LOOKS FAMILIAR IT SHOULD,|
IT'S THE SAME ONE POSTED TWO DAYS AGO, BUT SEE COMMENTS -
CHANGES TO IT ARE NOT WORTH MAKING AN ENTIRE NEW GRAPHIC FOR,,,,
THURSDAY: The 'Big Day' in Question remains elusive , as model disparagings run rampant, though to somewhat a lesser degree.
All this talk might be not worth neither here nor there in the end, but as noted yesterday the forecast wind shear profiles and strength of the winds aloft and colder temperatures aloft are nothing to sneeze at. Suspect some big storms over the loop current will get going sending plenty of 'debris clouds' over the state which might shut out too much low level instability. Primary focal point from the perspective of sitting in this location is from near Tampa Bay to just south of there to somewhere about 10 miles either side of a line running to Port Canaveral where this dormant boundary over that area continues to reside
|"On this Day, March 5th, Last Year" - Happy Ash Wednesday|
A few different scenarios could end up unfolding such as small isolated cells popping up by mid-late morning well ahead of the great forcing scheduled to move in from 10AM through 3PM..but a various locations at different times, or there could be a bit of a small squall line feature to move from west to east, or just several rounds of disorganized by isolated to strong storms over the course of the day. Should be interesting to watch from a weather perspective one way or the other just to see what does or does not happen.
Below is the SPC outlook as of late this morning, and it can be compared to the image above , which is why a newer one was not created for purposes of a simple blog post.
BEYOND: Cooler somewhat on Friday and/or Saturday, things are changing fast with each model run in the extended and Tuesday now appears will NOT be a severe weather day afterall, but will keep watching...the GFS has been known to abruptly shift in reverse after a few days to an older and previous perspective. As well as now that we mention that, it's now bringing colder air in during the latter portions of mid March. Just goes to show, if you can't trust a weather model one day out, why would one bother looking 7-10 days out? (there are good reasons too though for planning purposes).
|Last Year , This Day in the Morning|
|Sunrise Tuesday March 4th, Cape Canaveral|
|Temperature plot today for this afternoon from TwisterData.com. |
"Like" them on Facebook if desired. Blue is cold, red is warm
THURSDAY: Including the same image from yesterday's post (below) for active weather 'chances' combined with the latest Storm Prediction Center (SPC) graphic. They are located in Norman, Oklahoma. It is SPC that issues Tornado/Thunderstorm WATCH boxes. Actual "Warnings" are issued by local offices as conditions warrant, watch box or no watch box.
So far, it appears there might not be a solid enough argument for a Watch Box on Thursday, but we might be in what SPC calls, a "See Text" area for isolated cases of strong or severe-ish like storms, but not numerous enough to warrant a higher degree of concern over a large enough of "population".
Again, the strong winds aloft and cold air in our region this day isn't to be messed with, but lack of instability and a low level focal point argues against anything organized except maybe over the Gulf, not to discount however that guidance continues to show ample vertical velocities most anywhere across the state from mid-morning through late afternoon toward sunset.
ABOVE: SPC Low end chance of Severe region (left) compares with yesterday's area in between the 'orange' lines (right).
AS of this morning's looks, that red area would need to be shifted north by about 50 miles and maybe another 'red' area far south Florida/Keys from the GFS 12z (7AM) model run. But since things keep changing within and between model runs, and nothing is fully adding up to a higher confidence of a 'screaming severe' situation, best let lying dogs lay as is for now.
BEYOND: Front to clear through though no later than it appears Friday morning, with little temperature effects other than a cooler Friday. Winds to come back on shore by Saturday after northerlies on Friday , and then we might be seeing a repeat situation set up as noticed before next week.
It is not unusual for a front to come through every 4-7 days this time of year. As it is, this upcoming front will be originating from a low in the western Gulf (as was pointed out) rather than from the far North. The pattern is getting established , so again, the pattern within The Pattern would not be considered unusual to recur in some form or fashion; and sure enough, the GFS is hinting that will be the case.
That being, another low forms in the near same location from the next front to come through. So far, the signs are that this next one on "Tuesday" if it does so happen to occur, could post a much more significant severe weather threat than the one on Thursday.
All eyes are on deck with this one already per SPC and and the NWS (National Weather Service). But so far it's an ear tickler and eye massager until there is a more solid basis to say much more about next week at this point in time.
Other than next Tuesday (which is quite a way off to really be talking about it by and large)...the GFS was showing for an 'extended cool down' the next parts of March for several days, but now that seems to be going by the wayside, with only average to near above average temperatures now being the favored projection. Should be a Spring 'Breakers's Day Dream come true if that continues to be the case going into mid-March.
Man your battle-stations!!
|Monday Morning Sunrise - Cocoa Beach Pier|
|Tomorrow morning forecast lows not much different than this morning over Peninsular Florida though there could be an increase in cloud coverage (watching the SW- west Central Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday)|
WEDNESDAY: Will shoot with partly cloudy skies as warm front (the old frontal boundary lifts further north) reasserts a 'warm sector' across Central and South making for another warmer afternoon as low pressure in some shape or form approaches and develops to an either lesser or more degree near the Loop Current and/or south of the Louisiana coast in the northern Gulf. The big question in regard to Thursday's weather appears will be just exactly where any low will be located and how strong it will be.
This set up has been foreseen off and on now for over a week as mentioned in an old post which referred to the earlier parts of March appearing to have a severe weather threat potential.
THURSDAY: This is the day the 'blogger' has been watching per the GFS signals now for over 3 days and 14 consecutive model runs with restraint of pen. The Storm Prediction Center and the NWS Offices are all eye-balling Thursday now (as it used to be a maybe for Friday too, but that seems to have gone by the wayside)..for a chance of strong to severe storms.
No doubt it would be irresponsible to not at least mention the chance when considering the latest GFS shows the core of a 120 KT JET streak from the 500mb through the 200 mb levels cranking across North Florida placing Central in the left exit region (for maximized divergence aloft) coupled with vorticity maxes in the mid-upper levels amidst very cold air in those layers as well going from Thursday morning into mid afternoon. Consider it done. But as usual, there is all those 'ifs' ...
The down side for severe is lack of low level instability and that there is also a possibility that the most favorable winds will either race out too far ahead of the best low level convergence closer to the approaching front or even lag behind the better low level features/variables ( an on-going theme for this winter season so far). There are other factors involved which get more complex for reader's purposes; suffice it to say though that very cold air aloft and the strongest winds aloft we've seen in quite some time will be in place (or about to be in place) while Central and South Florida are in the warm sector all day Thursday which if other factors align could spell a 'recipe for disaster' (very tongue in cheek speaking). But will they forget the sugar?
Therefore, would not be surprised to hear some news stations beginning to mention this day (if they have not already).
BEYOND: Frontal boundary should clear by sunset or shortly thereafter, or at least the chance of the bad weather will, followed by slightly cooler but not cold weather for Friday through the weekend. So far, next weekend appears to be shaping up to be very nice; a bit cool but far from cold.
|"Storm Outflow Approaches North Canaveral"|
Otherwise, the frontal boundary per models is in agreement to be stretched east / west very close to or just north of the 528 Beach Line to Orlando then on toward just south of Brooksville on the west coast or maybe further north. Suspect this will act as a better mechanism for some 'squirrely' action (helicity) as well as more along the east coast east of I-95 if sea breezes can set up. Watch out for the 'squirrely action' when combined with cold air aloft!
Also, there might be some remnant outflow boundaries hanging around from yesterday's activity. Further south, a disturbance was offshore the West Palm area over night so suspect this area might be in sustenance at least for the first half of the day. Also, the RAP/ and SPC Mesoscale guidance shows this area over South Florida again to be quite dry through the mid-levels so showers might have a hard time down there once again, though sea breeze interactions from West Palm and north (and any outflow from activity further north) could act to bust a forecast bubble with a strong storm as well.
BEYOND: Front might end up in the morning just a bit further south but we'll see. If so, best storm activity will be South Central and South Florida on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another disturbance will be coming across the Northern Gulf from the west on Wednesday behind the surface front. Looks like an over-running rain event could set up for North Florida then into Central mainly during the dark hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning followed my much cooler temperatures to close out the week.
WEEKEND WEATHER is looking to be quite mild with mainly 50Fs and low to mid 70Fs but coolest at the beaches in the afternoons with a light sea breeze.
Further north though to Central the same general theme of query applies, but with a few more things going for that area, mainly more moisture and good bulk shear through the mid-levels (or at least some) and perhaps a tad more directional shear today as well. Instability is not as great today as yesterday though, but we do have a disturbance with a definite trigger crossing North Florida right now. In any case, might need to watch for activity to begin to manifest after 2:00pm and be particularly cautious if a storm starts to 'drop more south the move east' (be a 'right mover') especially as they reach the sea breeze, or any storm that approaches more from the NW-NNW instead of the west.
BEYOND: Chance of showers still into Tuesday and/or Wednesday with each day being a bit different. So far, Monday looks to be the quieter of days, and Tuesday has the potential to again reap the harvest of more favorable parameters for a strong storm or so.
|"Waiting for Peak Heating for Strongest Activity Today"|
|Storm Offshore Cape Canaveral on Friday, February 21|
|Image composed at 7AM this morning. |
Not much from this line of thinking but could change to extend thunder chances
south toward Ft. Pierce (at least)
BEYOND: The frontal boundary will lift north and dissipate overnight, with a chance of showers/thunderstorms through Monday and/or Tuesday remaining as temperatures remain above normal to perhaps much above 'normal' by around Tuesday; but as noted yesterday, each day will have its own unique set of circumstances. There might well be a day that chances on one or more days will be very low.
About the only change in latest models since yesterday is that a bigger rain - type event seems to be going away now. The GFS has rain chances extended into Wednesday afternoon, and from there it will be a matter of what if anything begins to form in the Western Gulf region to slide toward 'somewhere across Florida'. Would be interesting to see if that bigger rain chance re - materializes in later model runs.
|Reflecting on Upcoming Weekend Weather|
Further south, better sunlight / heat and instability through the morning to noon hours will build as a portion of the Southern Branch Jet starts to meet up with the Northern Branch rounding the base of the Low/Trough now focused over the Northern Great Lakes, which the approaching front is associated with.
As the Southernmost Branch approaches so too will upper level divergence over the region building in surface based instability (i.e., Central Florida). Winds could become 'side' shore, or parallel the coast south of I-4 as well rather than remain SW as stronger winds aloft approach. This could add low level convergence coupled with upper level divergence into the mix well ahead (in advance) of the more organized line, and it is that activity IF it can manifest that seems would be the larger threat rather than the line itself.
Sometime after 2 or 3PM perhaps (?), but showers and multiple pockets of rain and thunder could continue once an area such as this forms if it does. Chances are , the first storm of the day for any one location would be the biggie for that location, but not completely or necessarily so depending on the situation.
SATURDAY: The front should hang up close to Direct Central or just south of there then wash out during this day. Cloud cover will be around and rain chances much lower, though at time it appears will focus near the remaining boundary somewhere over Central Florida and inland though activity that does form will get whisked off toward the east coast .
SUNDAY: Southerly winds once again in advance of the next front referred to in the previous post. Another chance of storms just from the coast inland mainly, and some 'could' be a bit stronger if sea- breeze convergences get into the play. Monday and Tuesday are a bit of the same story as the front moves in but inevitably will have their own unique set of circumstances which is too far out in time for specifics.
BEYOND: Wednesday so far appears to be a dry day , but then...
Potential rain event (at least) coming the 27th time frame. Going into the first week of March still looks a bit dicey as well, as it appears a bit of a more 'El Nino-ish' looking pattern might be setting up; for California will be getting some big activity from Central and Maybe Southern Cali around the 27th as well, and after that as well. It's that next big upper level impulse to approach Florida or somewhere over the Southeast between March 3-5th that is still in question.
"Change in the Weather is About to Dawn"
TODAY- THURSDAY: Warming overnights and pleasant and sunny days ahead with inland highs in the lower to some mid 80sF and closer to 80F immediate beachside under sunny skies but with some increasing cloud cover each day as greater moisture works in from the south especially on Thursday. Meanwhile, a very vigorous and potent upper level low will form east of the Central Plains and head toward the Great Lakes. Though not sure of the exact definition of 'Bombing Out" , the bottom on this one is going to really drop out and pressure will be quite low. Expecting a vigorous QLCS type Squall Line with broken arching line segments and bow echoes with potentially tornadoes especially in Illinois , Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky but elongating out quickly into a straight line wind event. Eventually the event unfolds east to parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states and south. Much further south, Florida sits high and dry oblivious to what is going on to our west and north until Friday as the tail end of the front enters the panhandle.
FRIDAY: Again a warm if not warmest day of all, with SW winds possibly side shore south of I-4. Instability will be at about it's best since quite some time ago now with cold air aloft but with little in upper level winds. Chance of showers and some thunder though if conditions are ripe enough wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated strong storms with hail being the main hazard.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY-MONDAY: No point in going into specifics just yet, as the GFS is bouncing from one extreme to the other as to when the actual front will go through. After a very close call into Central it appears it will retreat back north and await the next upper level trough to rotate around the near H-Bomb Monster Mother Load Low by then in progress near the Canadian border. It is this front that is causing the bigger problem with whether or not it will make a thorough, scrubbingly clean passage or not. High pressure over and near Florida is reluctant to budge, Which will win out? Too soon to say.
As a prelim. rain chances again Saturday and Sunday, but cloud cover might become an increasing issue for wide coverage as well as 'any storm' strength though guidance continues to show ample instability (instant ability). Experience says the GFS has a hard time with instability over Florida beyond one day normally, though that is summer time norm for the model. Winter time? Hard to say how it will pan out, but suspect for now showers and possibly thunder one or both days if not even...
MONDAY-TUESDAY: Again, what will the front do. latest shows the front never hardly clearing Florida but as a very shallow boundary, which has not been the norm for the most part over the past three days and 12 other model runs of the GFS. now showing possibly thunder on Monda and or Tuesday...Regardless...
FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 4 : It is this week that is of greater interest as there has been a rather consistent tread of the GFS to show for a potential one if not two (as of the last run) severe weather events across the state...OR...it might just be plain much cooler than normal. So far, running 50/50, Either/Or.
|(See Below Discussion)|
Mid-Late Afternoon: Again, strongest activity will not be associated with the actual cold front which will make things much colder to cool Thursday through Saturday. Some showers and maybe some thunder especially South Florida by mid afternoon, though over Central we might be restricted to High based low topped convective like rain showers due to high LCLs (lifted condensation levels). Winds primarily from the SW but right near the beaches some backing toward paralleling the coast looks to be possible as far north as Southern Volusia (perhaps).
After 5-6PM: This seems to be around, give or take an hour, the big shift when LCLs lower and upper level winds begin to increase (unbeknownst to us at the ground) as high level 30-35,000 foot level winds over 100kts begin to move in -- Central at the approaching Right Exit Region for those winds which would increase upper level divergence and mid level lifting despite the lack of low level instability.
As a result, much of the activity will not exactly be 'surface based' but it is only February so hard to say for sure. Not expecting a good covering of 'organized activity' though there could be some isolated pockets of it, and those are impossible to say exactly where they will manifest, so will broad brush the areas noted above in the image. As a result of this being not a more formidably organized situation synoptically speaking, not sure we'll even see a watch box posted, but wouldn't be surprised either way.
Timing is everything, including the season. Suspect that there might be some tornado warnings after or near the 'dinner hour' time-frame toward 10pm but whether anything actually verifies on the ground is another matter. Paying especially close attention to those east of I-95 mainly from the Southern Volusia County area south to Vero Beach due to lingering low level helicities that might manifest from the intracoastal/ocean dynamics set in place earlier in the day though invisible to the model guidance. This 'could ' mean a very brief spin up like 'tornado' situation embedded within any stronger storm, but those would be very isolated. More predominately seems to be the chance for severe category straight line winds or even a brief spin up elsewhere as a result of interactions more than directly related to a discrete stand alone storm itself. Activity should be increasing in coverage after 7pm and exit off the east coast by 11pm for the most part with the cold front still many hours behind. Possibly rain showers with the front.
THURSDAY: Still appears the front will be directly across Central Florida within an hour either way of sunrise but the true cooling will not be fully appreciated until the sun starts to set. Breezy behind the front with westerly winds perhaps busting upwards of 30 mph for a period of time but good clearing with some earlier in the day clouds before the drier air moves in by late morning to early afternoon.
Much colder Thursday through Saturday mornings though gradually warming with a more noticeable change by Sunday after a weak front attempts to enter North and Central with little to no impacts. Afternoons in the lower to mid 60Fs (Central) but to the 70Fs by Sunday or even Saturday south of I4.
BEYOND: Dry for the most part and warm much like a week or so ago. It's as if so far the season is reversing - - for cold weather looks to be having a hard time coming , if not for a chance toward the 27th of the month (as it looks now).